{"id":1075,"date":"2011-01-03T17:17:00","date_gmt":"2011-01-03T08:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/?p=1075"},"modified":"2011-01-03T17:17:00","modified_gmt":"2011-01-03T08:17:00","slug":"think-twice-harnessing-the-power-of-counterintuition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/2011\/01\/03\/book\/1075\/","title":{"rendered":"Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a onclick=\"javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('\/downloads\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/blog_import_51c1b758d290a.jpg');\"  href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/blog_import_51c1b758d290a.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/blog_import_51c1b758d290a.jpg?resize=200%2C200\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\"\/><\/a><a onclick=\"javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('\/outgoing\/www.amazon.co.jp\/gp\/product\/1422176754\/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_3?pf_rd_p=466449256&#038;pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe&#038;pf_rd_t=201&#038;pf_rd_i=B000B84P7K&#038;pf_rd_m=AN1VRQENFRJN5&#038;pf_rd_r=0G0CTB3JVZ1DPYHNE1BW');\"  href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.co.jp\/gp\/product\/1422176754\/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_3?pf_rd_p=466449256&#038;pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe&#038;pf_rd_t=201&#038;pf_rd_i=B000B84P7K&#038;pf_rd_m=AN1VRQENFRJN5&#038;pf_rd_r=0G0CTB3JVZ1DPYHNE1BW\" target=\"_blank\">Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition<\/a><br \/>\nMichael J. Mauboussin (\u8457)<br \/>\n<a onclick=\"javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('\/outgoing\/www.amazon.co.jp\/%E3%81%BE%E3%81%95%E3%81%8B-%E2%80%95%E8%87%AA%E4%BF%A1%E3%81%8C%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E4%BA%BA%E3%81%BB%E3%81%A9%E9%99%A5%E3%82%8B%E6%84%8F%E6%80%9D%E6%B1%BA%E5%AE%9A8%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E7%BD%A0-%E3%83%9E%E3%82%A4%E3%82%B1%E3%83%AB%E3%83%BBJ%E3%83%BB%E3%83%A2%E3%83%BC%E3%83%96%E3%83%83%E3%82%B5%E3%83%B3\/dp\/4478012288\/ref=pd_bxgy_fb_img_b');\"  href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.co.jp\/%E3%81%BE%E3%81%95%E3%81%8B-%E2%80%95%E8%87%AA%E4%BF%A1%E3%81%8C%E3%81%82%E3%82%8B%E4%BA%BA%E3%81%BB%E3%81%A9%E9%99%A5%E3%82%8B%E6%84%8F%E6%80%9D%E6%B1%BA%E5%AE%9A8%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E7%BD%A0-%E3%83%9E%E3%82%A4%E3%82%B1%E3%83%AB%E3%83%BBJ%E3%83%BB%E3%83%A2%E3%83%BC%E3%83%96%E3%83%83%E3%82%B5%E3%83%B3\/dp\/4478012288\/ref=pd_bxgy_fb_img_b\" target=\"_blank\">\u307e\u3055\u304b!?\u2015\u81ea\u4fe1\u304c\u3042\u308b\u4eba\u307b\u3069\u9665\u308b\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a8\u3064\u306e\u7f60<\/a>\u306e\u539f\u8457\u3002<br \/>\n\u90a6\u984c\u306b\u3042\u308b8\u3064\u306e\u7f60\u3068\u306f\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u76ee\u6b21\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3053\u308c\u3089\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 1. <b>The Outside View<\/font><\/b> -Why Big Brown Was a Bad Bet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 2. <b>Open to Options<\/font><\/b> -How Your Telephone Number Can Influence Your Decisions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 3. <b>The Expert Squeeze<\/font><\/b> -Why Netflix More Than Clerks Do About Your Favorite Films<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 4. <b>Situational Awareness<\/font><\/b> -How Accordion Music Boosts Sales of Burgundy<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 5. <b>More Is Different<\/font><\/b> -How Bees Find the Best Hive Without a  Real Estate Agent<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 6. <b>Evidence of Circumstance<\/font><\/b> -How Outsourcing the Dreamliner Became Boeing&#8217;s Nightmare<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 7. <b>Grand Ah-Whooms<\/font><\/b> -How Ten Brits Made the Millennium Bridge Wobble<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><font size=\"3\">Chapter 8. <b>Sorting Luck from Skill<\/font><\/b> -Why Investors Excel at Buying High and Selling Low<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306e\u526f\u984c\u306b\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001\u5404\u7ae0\u306e\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u30d5\u30a1\u30af\u30c8\u3068\u7406\u8ad6\u306e\u6982\u8981\u304c\u66f8\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u30d3\u30b8\u30cd\u30b9\u66f8\u3092\u591a\u304f\u8aad\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u65b9\u3084\u7d71\u8a08\u30fb\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7b49\u3092\u304b\u3058\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u65b9\u306a\u3089\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306f\u65e2\u306b\u805e\u3044\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5185\u5bb9\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002<br \/>\n\u6700\u3082\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u306f\u6700\u5f8c\u306e\u7ae0\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002\u201dTime to Think Twice\u201d\u3002\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u8ad6\u3058\u3066\u304d\u305f\uff08\u90a6\u984c\u3067\u8a00\u3046\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306e\uff098\u3064\u306e\u7f60\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u3044\u3064\u305d\u308c\u3089\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u914d\u616e\u3092\u3081\u3050\u3089\u3057\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5bfe\u7b56\u3092\u8b1b\u3058\u308c\u3070\u826f\u3044\u306e\u304b\u3092\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff08\u5404\u7ae0\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u5404\u7f60\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5bfe\u7b56\u306f\u52ff\u8ad6\u8b1b\u3058\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\uff09\u3002<br \/>\n\u4e00\u90e8\u629c\u7c8b\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>P.138<br \/>\n<b>Raise your Awareness.<\/b> The first action is working to identify these mistakes in your daily stream of information.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>P.139<br \/>\n<b>Put Yourself in the Shoes of Others.<\/b> Considering the point of view or experience of other people is one of the most powerful ways to facilitate better decisions.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>P.140-142<br \/>\n<b>Recognize the Role of Skill and Luck.<\/b><br \/>\n<b>Get Feedback.<\/b> One of the best ways to improve decision making is through timely, accurate, and clear feedback<br \/>\nIf you are serious about improving your decisions and are open to feedback, there is a simple, inexpensive technique of great value -a decision-making journal. Whenever you make an important decision, take a moment to write down what you decided, how you came to that decision, and what you expect to happen. If you have the time and the inclination, you can also note how you feel physically and mentally.<br \/>\nA well-kept journal offers a pair of benefits. The journal allows you to audit your decisions. (\u7565)Another benefit is the potential to find patterns.<br \/>\n<b>Create a Checklist.<\/b> When you face a tough decision, you want to be able to think clearly about what you might inadvertently overlook. That&#8217;s where a decision checklist can be beneficial.<br \/>\nA good checklist balances two opposing objectives. It should be general enough to allow for varying conditions, yet specific enough to guide action. Finding this balance means a checklist should not be too long; ideally, you should be able to fit it on one or two pages.<br \/>\n<b>Perform a Premortem.<\/b> (\u7565)premortems help people identify a greater number of potential problems than other techniques and encourage more open exchange, because no one individual or group has invested in a decision yet.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>P.143<br \/>\n<b>Know What You Can&#8217;t Know<\/b><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition Michael J. Mauboussin (\u8457) \u307e\u3055\u304b!?\u2015\u81ea\u4fe1\u304c\u3042\u308b\u4eba\u307b\u3069\u9665\u308b\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a8\u3064\u306e\u7f60\u306e\u539f\u8457\u3002 \u90a6 &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/2011\/01\/03\/book\/1075\/\" class=\"more-link\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition&#8221; \u306e<\/span>\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[69],"class_list":["post-1075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-book","tag-book"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/blog_import_51c1b758d290a.jpg?fit=500%2C500","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3GYsn-hl","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1075\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/dsaga.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}