Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Michael J. Mauboussin (著)
まさか!?―自信がある人ほど陥る意思決定8つの罠の原著。
邦題にある8つの罠とはおそらく目次にあるこれら。

  • Chapter 1. The Outside View -Why Big Brown Was a Bad Bet
  • Chapter 2. Open to Options -How Your Telephone Number Can Influence Your Decisions
  • Chapter 3. The Expert Squeeze -Why Netflix More Than Clerks Do About Your Favorite Films
  • Chapter 4. Situational Awareness -How Accordion Music Boosts Sales of Burgundy
  • Chapter 5. More Is Different -How Bees Find the Best Hive Without a Real Estate Agent
  • Chapter 6. Evidence of Circumstance -How Outsourcing the Dreamliner Became Boeing’s Nightmare
  • Chapter 7. Grand Ah-Whooms -How Ten Brits Made the Millennium Bridge Wobble
  • Chapter 8. Sorting Luck from Skill -Why Investors Excel at Buying High and Selling Low

いくつかの副題に含まれているように、各章のメッセージに対してファクトと理論の概要が書かれている。ビジネス書を多く読まれている方や統計・心理学等をかじっていた方ならいくつかは既に聞いたことがある内容が含まれていると思う。
最もためになるのは最後の章だと思う。”Time to Think Twice”。上記の中で論じてきた(邦題で言うところの)8つの罠について、いつそれらに対して配慮をめぐらし、どのように対策を講じれば良いのかをまとめている(各章において各罠に対する対策は勿論講じられているが)。
一部抜粋する。

P.138
Raise your Awareness. The first action is working to identify these mistakes in your daily stream of information.

P.139
Put Yourself in the Shoes of Others. Considering the point of view or experience of other people is one of the most powerful ways to facilitate better decisions.

P.140-142
Recognize the Role of Skill and Luck.
Get Feedback. One of the best ways to improve decision making is through timely, accurate, and clear feedback
If you are serious about improving your decisions and are open to feedback, there is a simple, inexpensive technique of great value -a decision-making journal. Whenever you make an important decision, take a moment to write down what you decided, how you came to that decision, and what you expect to happen. If you have the time and the inclination, you can also note how you feel physically and mentally.
A well-kept journal offers a pair of benefits. The journal allows you to audit your decisions. (略)Another benefit is the potential to find patterns.
Create a Checklist. When you face a tough decision, you want to be able to think clearly about what you might inadvertently overlook. That’s where a decision checklist can be beneficial.
A good checklist balances two opposing objectives. It should be general enough to allow for varying conditions, yet specific enough to guide action. Finding this balance means a checklist should not be too long; ideally, you should be able to fit it on one or two pages.
Perform a Premortem. (略)premortems help people identify a greater number of potential problems than other techniques and encourage more open exchange, because no one individual or group has invested in a decision yet.

P.143
Know What You Can’t Know

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